Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

EV

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • NRGV’s Q1 2025 printed light revenue but strong margins: revenue $8.53M (+10% YoY) with GAAP gross margin 57.1% (vs 26.7% LY), driven by high‑margin India license and Australia mix; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.27M . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue missed materially ($8.53M vs $25.04M*) while Primary EPS (S&P basis) beat (−$0.08 vs −$0.13*) and EBITDA (S&P basis) missed (−$20.79M vs −$11.33M*) .*
  • Backlog stood at $648M, with ~90% shielded from U.S. tariff risk via Australia, licenses, and owned assets; company targeting a 15–25% reduction in quarterly adjusted OpEx to a $12–14M run‑rate from $16.2M in Q1 .
  • Liquidity improved: total cash (incl. restricted) rose 57% QoQ to $47.2M, aided by the $28M Calistoga project financing; further ~$32M for Cross Trails (project financing and ITC sale) expected in Q2 and ~$40M of ITC proceeds expected in September .
  • Strategy execution: first owned-and-operated asset (Cross Trails, TX) completed and generating commissioning revenue; three owned projects are expected to deliver ~$30M in annual recurring project EBITDA over 15+ years once operational .
  • Potential stock catalysts: tariff pause supportive of U.S. delivery cadence; reiterated 2025 revenue outlook and O&O milestones; near‑term cash inflections from Cross Trails financing and ITC monetizations, and visible OpEx cuts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • High-margin mix drove margin expansion: GAAP gross margin rose to 57.1% (from 26.7%), primarily from India license revenue and Australia mix . “The gross margin was quite high in the quarter…57%…reflecting…Australia…as well as…license…in India.” — CEO Robert Piconi .
  • Liquidity inflection and financing progress: cash (incl. restricted) increased to $47.2M QoQ; Calistoga $28M project financing closed; Cross Trails financing (~$20M) and $12M ITC sale targeted for Q2; additional ~$40M ITC proceeds expected in September .
  • Owned-and-operated (O&O) strategy advancing: Cross Trails mechanically complete and generating commissioning revenue; three owned assets expected to deliver ~$30M annual project EBITDA over 15+ years .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue well below Street: Q1 revenue $8.53M vs S&P Global consensus $25.04M*, reflecting timing and seasonally low Q1 activity; management expects revenue to ramp in 2H as Calistoga and Cross contribute .*
  • EBITDA miss on S&P basis: S&P “EBITDA” actual −$20.79M vs −$11.33M consensus*, despite company’s adjusted EBITDA loss improving to −$11.27M (mix/OpEx cuts); definitions differ (company reports “adjusted EBITDA”) .*
  • NYSE compliance notice: company received notice for <$1 average price; has six months to cure — overhang until resolved .

Financial Results

Actuals by period (oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$7.76 $33.47 $8.53
GAAP Gross Margin %26.7% 7.7% 57.1%
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)$(0.14) $(0.43) $(0.14)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(14.51) $(13.39) $(11.27)

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global basis; Q1 comparisons)

MetricQ1 2024 ConsensusQ1 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.29*$7.76 $42.51*$33.47 $25.04*$8.53
Primary EPS (S&P basis)$(0.135)*$(0.0877)*$(0.1133)*$(0.0908)*$(0.13)*$(0.0764)*
EBITDA (S&P basis, $M)$(11.89)*$(24.43)*$(13.04)*$(50.52)*$(11.33)*$(20.79)*

Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPI snapshots

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$350 $660 $648
Developed Pipeline ($USD Billions)$2.7 $2.1 n/a
Cash incl. Restricted ($USD Millions, period-end)$77.68 $30.07 $47.16
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$51.12 $27.09 $17.82
Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)$26.56 $2.98 $29.33
Property & Equipment, net ($USD Millions)$90.29 $99.49 $125.60
Adjusted OpEx ($USD Millions)$15.24 (Q3) $16.07 (Q4) $16.20 (Q1)
Australia activity2.6 GWh active 2.6 GWh in AU 2.6 GWh projects
O&O milestoneFID Cross Trails Calistoga financing in April Cross Trails complete/commissioning

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$200–$300M (Mar 17) Reiterated; no change (May 12) Maintained
Adjusted OpEx Run‑RateNear‑term quarterlyn/aReduce 15–25% to $12–$14M vs $16.2M in Q1 New reduction target
Project Financing – Cross TrailsQ2 2025n/a~$20M gross proceeds expected; +$12M ITC sale New specifics
ITC MonetizationsSept 2025n/a>$40M expected (incl. portions tied to CRC and Cross Trails) New specifics
Tariff Impact/Outlook2025Tariff headwind noted in March Tariff pause encouraging; no guidance change; potential upside from accelerated U.S. deliveries Qualitative improvement

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prior-2)Q4 2024 (Prior-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Tech initiatives (software, EMS)VaultOS/EMS part of solutions, high GM services Continued EMS integration; Calistoga microgrid controls VaultOS central to India license and hybrid microgrid orchestration Expanding software leverage
Supply chain & tariffsNoted equipment deliveries and pricing pressure 2025 outlook reflects lower Li‑ion prices and U.S. tariffs Tariff “pause” encouraging; 90% backlog not exposed; secured non‑China alternatives Improving/hedged
Macro/regulatoryAustralia support (NSW programs) CA long‑duration policy alignment (PG&E) Tariff policy tailwind; NYSE compliance plan disclosed Mixed: listing overhang, policy tailwind
Product/performanceGravity RTE ~83% in China Hardware deliveries mix lowered GM High-margin India license boosts GM Mix-driven improvement
Regional trendsAU growth to 2.6 GWh pipeline AU projects + Stoney Creek acquisition AU projects ramp; first Swiss project noted Sustained AU momentum
O&O strategyFID Cross Trails; project finance underway O&O portfolio 6 projects; 18–24 mo horizon Cross Trails complete; ~$30M ann. EBITDA from first 3; targeting ~$100M recurring EBITDA across 7 projects Acceleration/visibility
R&D executionOrganizational realignment improved adj OpEx Adj OpEx track lower YoY Targeting $12–14M quarterly run-rate Further cost-down

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning and mix: “Gross margin was…57%…reflecting…Australia…as well as…license…in India.” — CEO Robert Piconi .
  • Liquidity and financing cadence: “We expect…$45 million more coming in the project financing and the sale of the ITCs…in Q2 and into Q3.” — CEO Robert Piconi .
  • Owned assets as stabilizer: “Having this recurring long-term predictable EBITDA now…will help insulate…what otherwise is…lumpy…delivering energy storage projects.” — CEO Robert Piconi .
  • Guidance setup: “We are…reiterating our previously issued guidance, certainly on the top line.” — CFO Michael Beer .
  • Bookings coverage: “Going into the year, we had over 80% of our revenue…contracted based on our guide.” — CEO Robert Piconi .

Q&A Highlights

  • U.S. tariffs and demand cadence: Developers paused in April; with tariff pause, contracting could restart within the 90‑day window; flexibility exists to source outside China if needed .
  • 2025 revenue coverage: >80% of guide already contracted; some late‑stage opportunities may re‑accelerate given tariff development .
  • India license rationale: Flexibility of B‑Vault hardware/software architecture, localized manufacturing ambitions, and Energy Vault’s multi‑vendor execution track record attracted SPML .
  • Project finance acceptance: Bankability aided by conventional tech and long‑term offtakes (PG&E, Gridmatic, AU government‑backed), supporting attractive financing terms .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $8.53M vs $25.04M* (miss), Primary EPS −$0.076 vs −$0.13* (beat), EBITDA −$20.79M vs −$11.33M* (miss). The company’s adjusted EBITDA was −$11.27M, reflecting non‑GAAP adjustments not embedded in S&P’s EBITDA definition .*
  • Directionally, consensus may need to shift more weight to 2H as Calistoga and Cross contribute and Australia ramps; management reiterated the 2025 revenue outlook and highlighted potential upside from accelerated U.S. deliveries contingent on tariff developments .*

Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix‑driven margin strength is tangible (57.1% GM) and should persist as licensing and AU work scale; however, quarterly revenue remains timing‑dependent, skewing to 2H with owned assets entering service .
  • Liquidity is set to rise near term via Cross Trails financing and ITC monetizations; total cash (incl. restricted) already improved to $47.2M in Q1, with $50–60M targeted by Q2 end and $60–75M by Q3 (management commentary) .
  • O&O portfolio is transitioning the model toward recurring project EBITDA (~$30M from first three assets; ~$100M targeted across seven), potentially reducing earnings volatility over time .
  • Backlog quality is high with ~90% insulated from U.S. tariffs; the tariff pause could unlock delayed bookings and accelerate deliveries, offering potential 2025 upside without changing guidance today .
  • Risk monitor: NYSE minimum price compliance process (six‑month cure) is an overhang; execution on financings, COD milestones, and OpEx reductions are critical to sentiment .
  • For trading: near‑term catalysts include Cross Trails financing close, ITC monetization updates, Calistoga COD, and any AU award conversions; updates on U.S. deliveries given tariff developments could move the stock .
  • Medium‑term thesis: successful scaling of O&O assets plus AU growth and licensing can lift blended margins and cash generation; watch alignment of Street models toward 2H weighting and non‑GAAP/GAAP bridge clarity .

Appendix: Other Relevant Q1 2025 Press Releases

  • Closed $28M Calistoga project financing; asset under commissioning; COD expected Q2 2025 .
  • Signed 10‑year India license/royalty deal with SPML (30–40+ GWh over 10 years; initial 500 MWh over 12 months); upfront license supports Q1/Q2 GM/cash .
  • NYSE continued listing notice (average price <$1); six months to cure; intends to pursue alternatives subject to shareholder approval .